So we await the Q4 results for Avg Monthly Income Reports

We have seen the the CPI for year 2007, a whopping 4.2%, and all lights are flashing red.

But how are we going to create a solid fundamental view on the prevalent economical climate of our nation? I'd suggest you take look at the Q4 results of the average monthly income report.

Currently, as it stands the avg monthly income of a Singaporean is at $3,481 a drop from Q2 $3,578. That said, we could argue that the drop could be a mere seasonal adjustment due to the fact that 2006 displayed similar trend in data (with less volatility though), see below,

Q2 2006 -3,297
Q3 2006 -3,256 (-1.24%)
Q4 2006 -3,961 (21.65%) CPI For 2006 = 1%

Q1 2007 -3,903
Q2 2007 -3,578
Q3 2007 -3,481 (-2.71%)
Q4 2007 -????? (???????) CPI For 2007 = 4.2%

Granted, Q4 Data for monthly income must be bullish to complement the inflationary CPI Data. Next issue would be, how bullish should the data be? I will assume that we should see at least an equal increase in percentage compared to 2006 Q4 data.

Anything less would mean the pockets of the average Singaporean will hurt for 2008 and it would mean an early signal that the economy has thus reached a peakish momentum. Please note that i mentioned economy, not the markets, i'm expecting this will slowly work it way into the market in q3 or q4 of 2008.

Thus a bullish q1-2 of 2008 will prove a classic divergence with the statical data and investors should be advised to excercise prudence.

best regards
jest